This paper proposes a novel theoretical framework for understanding the persistent 80-year macroeconomic cycles observed in post-industrial economies. Drawing on dynamical systems theory, we conceptualize the economy as a bimodal attractor system oscillating between growth and stagnation states through self-reinforcing feedback loops. Our analysis identifies the primary mechanism driving these long-term cycles: the relationship between consumer income, spending, labor demand, and wages, mediated by capital accumulation and institutional evolution.
Using spectral analysis, panel cointegration techniques, and cross-spectral coherence measures on historical economic data spanning 1840-2020, we demonstrate statistically significant periodicity at approximately 80 years. The model explains major economic transitions including the Great Depression (1929), post-war prosperity (1940s-1970s), and subsequent stagnation period (1980s-2020s).
We show how technological advancement paradoxically reinforces the stagnation attractor when productivity gains flow disproportionately to capital rather than labor. The theory offers policy implications, particularly regarding Universal Basic Income as a potential state-transition mechanism to shift economies from stagnation to growth attractors, especially relevant in the context of accelerating technological displacement.
This framework provides a unified explanation for seemingly disparate economic phenomena including secular stagnation, inequality cycles, and the paradox of productivity where technological advancement fails to generate broad-based prosperity.